(post by Dee) 2009 is on, but I have just picked up a copy of the Real Deal magazine’s December 2008 edition. Not a big fan of the magazine (basically every “article” is an infomercial written by a broker or about brokers, often not very good ones – don’t ever use it for advice or take its trends reports seriously; but it is entertaining and at times informative, especially about new projects) but I found this edition especially indicative of the times. Yes, January 2009 edition is already out but the “2008 – A Year to Forget” headline just validates my points below. Here is a list of headlines:

“Development in distress” – an 8-page spread

“Bracing for a bust”

“Bad market gets worse”

“New York City’s real estate market sees slowdown across the board”

“As market cools, jobs evaporate”

“Tenants say ‘see you later’”

“Commercial landlords lose leverage”

‘Uptown rents plunge”

Dire outlook and constant onslaught of negative news have done no good to help boost consumer confidence or calm down markets. Well, sensationalism sells and bad news is always more attractive to a reporter than positive one. No wonder we are entering 2009 all beat up and skeptical. Rarely anyone tells of success these days. One attorney I know tells me his goal for short sales in 2009 is 500 closings! That’s almost 2 per day!

But even among this Real Deal’s very depressing edition, a few positive headlines pop up here and there… “Small banks eye Manhattan branches” and ‘Stepping up to fill a lending void”, or ‘Some online retailers see opportunities to expand during tough times”.

Well, I can tell you that opportunities are there. Brokers who used to sell luxury single-family homes turn to income property sales, short sales and rentals to survive. Some discover that ability to chase what’s hot is the only way to survive market cycles. And some discover that there is plenty business to be made this way.

One real estate executive wrote on the last day of 2008 to “Embrace the challenge in 2009” in his Executive Watch from GlobeSt. column, and many have predicted that opportunity investors, vulture finds, and value cash buyers will bring up transaction volume in 2009.  Actions like a 4-day work week to keep people employed while still cutting cost show flexibility in America’s corporate world.

“Things must get worse before they get better” is a statement repeated by many but what does that really mean? Well, overpriced properties must come down in price. I’m hoping we stop at 20% drop max in NYC. But recovery won’t start until positive thinking returns and when that happens is a guess at best. You want to know my opinion? It will start when media changes its tune to a more positive one. Remember “real estate prices never go down in NY” beliefs from 2005? Well, one day in the next 2 years “recovery is imminent after a bust” will become fashionable and once we believe that it’s happening, things will look up again.